Electronics Export Growth Estimator
India Export Growth Calculator
See how India's electronics exports could overtake petroleum exports with different growth rates.
When you hear "India's biggest export," the first image that pops up isn’t a smartphone or a circuit board. It’s barrels of oil, glittering gems, and a massive flow of medicines. Yet, the story of India’s export landscape is changing fast, especially for the electronics sector that’s been chewing up a bigger slice of the pie each year.
What counts as the biggest export?
In trade‑talk, "biggest" usually means the highest total value in a given year. According to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India's biggest export is petroleum products, which topped the export ledger with a value of about $115 billion in FY 2023‑24. That figure dwarfs the next‑best category, gems and jewelry, which logged roughly $45 billion.
Why petroleum products dominate
India imports a lot of crude oil, refines it, and then ships the finished fuels abroad. The "refined petroleum" segment-diesel, gasoline, aviation fuel-earned a premium because global energy prices surged after 2020. The country's strategic location, large refining capacity (over 30 million metric tons per day), and robust shipping links keep the flow steady.
Top five export categories (FY 2023‑24)
| Rank | Category | Export Value (USD bn) | Key Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petroleum products | 115 | USA, UAE, Singapore |
| 2 | Gems & jewelry | 45 | USA, UAE, Hong Kong |
| 3 | Pharmaceuticals | 38 | USA, UK, Africa |
| 4 | Textiles & apparel | 33 | USA, EU, Middle East |
| 5 | Electronics (including mobile phones, components) | 29 | USA, EU, Southeast Asia |
Notice how the electronics column, while not the leader, is already a $29 billion‑strong player. That’s a 14 % jump from the previous fiscal year.
Electronics manufacturing: The rise of a new heavyweight
Electronics export growth is driven by three forces:
- Production‑linked incentive (PLI) scheme-the government promised $1 billion in subsidies for chip fabs and mobile‑phone assembly plants.
- Strong global demand for affordable smartphones and wearable devices, especially in Africa and Latin America.
- Improved supply‑chain resilience after the pandemic, with more firms moving critical component assembly to Indian hubs.
Major players like Foxconn, Samsung, and home‑grown Lava International have set up large‑scale lines in Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh. These sites collectively churn out over 150 million mobile units a year.
How electronics stack up against the biggest export
Even though petroleum still reigns, electronics are closing the gap fast. To put the numbers in perspective:
- Petroleum export value grew by just 2 % in FY 2023‑24, reflecting a plateau in global oil demand.
- Electronics grew by 14 % year‑on‑year, outpacing the overall export‑growth rate of 7 %.
- When you factor in the high profit margins on smartphones and semiconductors, the earnings per unit are roughly three times those of refined oil.
If the current trajectory holds, electronics could overtake gems & jewelry by 2028 and become the second‑largest export category within a decade.
Key challenges for the electronics export push
Growth isn’t automatic. Companies contend with:
- Component shortages-global chip shortages still ripple through the supply chain, raising lead times.
- Skill gaps-advanced PCB design and testing require engineers that are still scarce in many Indian states.
- Regulatory friction-customs procedures for high‑value electronics can be slower than for bulk commodities like oil.
Addressing these hurdles involves more vocational training, smoother customs‑clearance digital platforms, and deeper partnerships with semiconductor giants abroad.
What the data tells us: A quick checklist for exporters
- Target markets: prioritize USA, EU, and emerging economies in Africa where price‑sensitive devices sell well.
- Product focus: midsize smartphones (6-7 inches) and IoT modules for smart‑city projects.
- Leverage incentives: claim up to 30 % of capital costs under the PLI scheme for eligible factories.
- Watch tariffs: stay updated on US‑India trade‑policy reviews that affect duty rates on electronics.
- Supply‑chain mapping: secure at least two certified vendors for critical ICs to avoid single‑point failures.
Future outlook: Will electronics ever become the biggest export?
Analysts at the World Bank project that India’s overall export basket will reach $800 billion by 2030. If electronics continue to grow at 12‑15 % annually, its share could climb to $120 billion, nudging it alongside petroleum. A further boost could come from a home‑grown semiconductor ecosystem, something the government aims to achieve by 2035.
In short, petroleum remains the heavyweight champion today, but electronics are the dark horse gaining speed. For businesses, investors, and policymakers, the real question isn’t “what is India’s biggest export?” but rather “how fast can we accelerate the rise of electronics to become the next big thing?”
What was India's top export in FY 2023‑24?
Petroleum products topped the list with about $115 billion in export value, making it the clear leader.
How much did electronics export from India in FY 2023‑24?
Electronics, including mobile phones and components, generated roughly $29 billion, a 14 % increase from the previous year.
Which government scheme supports electronics manufacturing?
The Production‑Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme offers up to 30 % subsidy on capital investments for eligible electronics and semiconductor projects.
What are the main markets for Indian electronics exports?
Key destinations include the United States, the European Union, and fast‑growing regions in Southeast Asia and Africa.
Can electronics overtake petroleum as the biggest export?
If current growth rates hold, electronics could become the second‑largest export by the late 2020s and may challenge petroleum by 2035, especially if a domestic semiconductor ecosystem takes off.
